Rate Drivers

Track several public market indicators that can help explain the mortgage-rate environment.

10-Year Treasury
4.95%
Latest change: +0.12%
Updated September 10, 2026
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
Latest change: 0.00%
Updated August 1, 2026
CPI Index
334.13
Latest change: +1.32%
Updated August 1, 2026
Unemployment Rate
4.10%
Latest change: 0.00%
Updated August 1, 2026
Mortgage / Treasury Spread
1.81%
30-year mortgage average minus 10-year Treasury yield
Educational market comparison

10-Year Treasury

Longer-term mortgage rates often move with bond-market expectations. The 10-year Treasury is a useful benchmark for watching that market backdrop.

Fed funds, CPI, and jobs

Fed policy, inflation readings, and employment conditions can all affect rate expectations, even though they do not directly set your mortgage quote.

30-Year Mortgage Rate Trend

2.25% 3.75% 5.25% 6.75% 8.25% Sep 2016 Sep 2026
30-Year Fixed: 6.76% as of September 10, 2026. Showing about 120 months of weekly FRED observations.

10-Year Treasury Trend

3.25% 3.75% 4.25% 4.75% 5.25% Mar 2024 Sep 2026
DGS10: 4.95% as of September 10, 2026. Showing about 120 months of weekly FRED observations.

Why the 10-Year Treasury matters

Mortgage rates are not the same as Treasury yields, but longer-term mortgage pricing often moves with bond-market expectations. The spread between the 30-year mortgage average and the 10-year Treasury can help show how mortgage pricing compares with the broader rate market.